In the medical and pharmaceutical sectors, curtailments in supplies sourced or produced in China would severely degrade health care access, quality and treatment for nearly every American. companies and domestic consumers would be acute and far-reaching, including in three important sectors: medicine and pharmaceuticals, microchips and technology, and energy. While the scope, scale and evolution of a hot conflict are difficult to forecast, disruption for the U.S. Should an entanglement occur, it is likely that exploiting supply chain dependencies, already partly levied in the technology and investment sectors, could feature and expand in other critical sectors to further levy costs and attempt to curb each countries’ strategic goals. Those skeptics should recall similar flawed assumptions made on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which evidenced autocrats’ willingness to manipulate key commodity flows, at times at great financial cost, to advance great power ambitions. Given the self-harm of an expanded or full-scale embargo of Chinese goods destined for the U.S., some have downplayed such a scenario by Chinese leader Xi Jinping as impractical or unlikely.
This includes the food we buy, the cars we drive, the prescriptions we take, and the energy we use, which would dwarf recent shortages in the United States for cars and baby formula, for example. While many have gamed how a conflict might materialize on the battlefield, surveying the disastrous impacts to the homeland and the masses within it is not widely known. Yet, an even larger challenge looms: the fear of a war between the United States and China, the most influential hegemons and world’s two largest economies.
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